What is the role of financial speculation in determining the real oil price? We find that while macroeconomic shocks have been the main real oil price upward driver since mid-1980s, financial shocks have sizably contributed since early 2000s as well, and at a much larger extent since mid-2000s. Even though financial shocks contribute 44% out of the 65% real oil price increase over the period 2004-2010, the third oil price shock is a macro-finance episode: macroeconomic shocks actually largely account for the 2007-2008 oil price swing. While we then find support to the demand side view of real oil price determination, we however also find a much larger role for financial shocks than previously noted in the literature.

Morana, C. (2013). Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation. JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE, 37, 206-226 [10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.08.027].

Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation

MORANA, CLAUDIO
2013

Abstract

What is the role of financial speculation in determining the real oil price? We find that while macroeconomic shocks have been the main real oil price upward driver since mid-1980s, financial shocks have sizably contributed since early 2000s as well, and at a much larger extent since mid-2000s. Even though financial shocks contribute 44% out of the 65% real oil price increase over the period 2004-2010, the third oil price shock is a macro-finance episode: macroeconomic shocks actually largely account for the 2007-2008 oil price swing. While we then find support to the demand side view of real oil price determination, we however also find a much larger role for financial shocks than previously noted in the literature.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Oil price; Financial speculation, Macro-finance interface, International business cycle, Factor vector autoregressive models
English
2013
37
206
226
none
Morana, C. (2013). Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation. JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE, 37, 206-226 [10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.08.027].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/37339
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