Research on dichotomic questions for testing hypotheses is a mature field of study jointly pursued by cognitive psychology and statistics. Currently, it encompasses highly sophisticated mathematical formalizations, which can disincentive readers that have an interest in the topic, but do not have an expertise in those disciplines. Consequently, most of the practical usefulness of hypothesis-testing studies is not conveyed to people who more than everyone else could capitalize on their findings, including everyday professionals of hypothesis-testing: judges, detectives, lawyers, but also medics and politicians. In this paper I use the minimal possible amount of formalism, strictly limited to what is necessary to grasp the main findings of practical import. After setting the basic coordinates for classifying and recognizing the different typologies of hypothesis-testing questions, the paper describes their logical properties and the psychological biases that they can cause, with some advice on how to avoid them.

Lo studio delle domande dicotomiche usate per controllare la veridicità o falsità di ipotesi è un tema a cavallo tra la psicologia cognitiva e la statistica, con formalizzazioni matematiche anche complesse, che possono scoraggiare il lettore interessato ma esterno a quelle discipline. In questo modo si perde di vista l’utilità pratica degli importanti risultati che quell’area di studi ha conseguito per chi più li troverebbe più utili: chi le domande di controllo di ipotesi le deve fare per professione, come magistrati, investigatori, avvocati, ma anche medici e politici. In questo articolo adotto un livello di formalismo minimo, ma sufficiente a cogliere i principali risultati di questi studi, a fini pratici. Dopo aver fornito le coordinate per classificare le diverse tipologie di domande, se ne descrivono le proprietà logiche e i possibili trabocchetti psicologici in cui possono indurre, formulando alcuni suggerimenti su come evitarli.

Cherubini, P. (2021). Controllo di ipotesi attraverso domande / Hypothesis-testing by questioning. CASSAZIONE PENALE, LXI(11), 3758-3772.

Controllo di ipotesi attraverso domande / Hypothesis-testing by questioning

Cherubini, P
2021

Abstract

Research on dichotomic questions for testing hypotheses is a mature field of study jointly pursued by cognitive psychology and statistics. Currently, it encompasses highly sophisticated mathematical formalizations, which can disincentive readers that have an interest in the topic, but do not have an expertise in those disciplines. Consequently, most of the practical usefulness of hypothesis-testing studies is not conveyed to people who more than everyone else could capitalize on their findings, including everyday professionals of hypothesis-testing: judges, detectives, lawyers, but also medics and politicians. In this paper I use the minimal possible amount of formalism, strictly limited to what is necessary to grasp the main findings of practical import. After setting the basic coordinates for classifying and recognizing the different typologies of hypothesis-testing questions, the paper describes their logical properties and the psychological biases that they can cause, with some advice on how to avoid them.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Hypothesis testing, diagnosticity, bayesian revision, forensic reasoning
Italian
2021
LXI
11
3758
3772
open
Cherubini, P. (2021). Controllo di ipotesi attraverso domande / Hypothesis-testing by questioning. CASSAZIONE PENALE, LXI(11), 3758-3772.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/328867
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