Species distribution modelling and population trends of breeding birds in agro-ecosystems: the case of Lombardy (Italy).

We analysed population trends and distributions of breeding birds in Lombardy (Italy), focusing on agro-ecosystem species. We collected data following a stratified random sampling design by means of point counts method. Species distribution and abundance were estimated using generalised additive models (GAMs). We assessed the mean annual variation rate for 19 breeding bird species, between 1992 and 2014, applying the discrete population growth model. Over the whole period, as extreme values at regional scale, the Skylark showed a significant population decline, losing about the 90% of starting population, while the Common Wood Pigeon presented a fourfold increase.