Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?

The aim of this paper is to analyse the causes leading to social exclusion dynamics. In particular, we wish to understand why an individual experiencing social exclusion today is much more likely to experience it again. In fact, there are two distinct processes that may generate a persistence of social exclusion: Heterogeneity (individuals are heterogeneous with respect to some observed and/or unobserved adverse characteristics that are relevant to experiencing social exclusion and persist over time) and true state dependence (experiencing social exclusion in a specific time period, in itself, increases the probability of undergoing social exclusion in subsequent periods). Distinguishing between the two processes is crucial since the policy implications are very different. The results suggest that both individual heterogeneity and true state dependence are related to the probability of experiencing social exclusion. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2006.