Gyrokinetic profile prediction and validation of a negative triangularity plasma in ASDEX Upgrade

In this work, gyrokinetic simulations are performed with the CGYRO code (Candyet al2016J.Comput. Phys.32473-93) for a negative triangularity H-mode plasma in ASDEX Upgrade, andcompared with experimental measurements. The PORTALS framework (Rodriguez-Fernandezet al2024Nucl. Fusion64076034) is used to accelerate the prediction of kinetic profiles forthis plasma, using surrogate modeling and Bayesian optimization. Ion heat flux, electron heatflux, and electron particle flux are simultaneously matched across the simulated radial regime ofthe plasma (normalized radiusr/a=0.35-0.90), and the resulting ion temperature, electrontemperature, and electron density profiles match well with the experimental profile data withinthis radial range. A synthetic Correlation Electron Cyclotron Emission diagnostic is applied tofind well-matched electron temperature fluctuation properties between simulation andexperiment. The flux-matched profiles provide a basis for investigation of the turbulence natureacross the plasma radius, revealing the dominance of Trapped Electron Mode turbulence atr/a=0.35, the dominance of Ion Temperature Gradient turbulence atr/a=0.55, 0.75, and0.83, and an instability boundary atr/a=0.90.