Political backlash to refugee settlement: Cultural and economic drivers

The 2015 refugee crisis in Europe has fueled anti-immigrant sentiment in host regions, with potential unintended consequences for refugee integration. We examine the heterogeneity of political backlash across Italian municipalities post-crisis and assess the concomitant role of economic vs socio-cultural factors in “welcoming" refugees (i.e., the supply side of integration). By leveraging the quasi-random dispersal policy and using causal forests, we find that refugee exposure has a significantly higher impact on anti-immigration backlash in more affluent areas and those with more bonding social capital. Conversely, areas with more bridging social capital, as measured by meaningful intergroup contact with former immigrants (e.g., mixed marriages), show less political backlash. We exploit this pattern of heterogeneity to evaluate counterfactual resettlement policies that minimize backlash. Results show that economic factors alone are insufficient to stem local discontent, while the socio-cultural dimension of host communities is crucial for the design of effective refugee resettlement programs.