The Cost of Cutbacks: How Reduction in Development Assistance for Health May Affect Progress Made in HIV/AIDS Control in Africa

Background/Objectives: The recent Executive Order suspending the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) programmes, including Development Assistance for Health (DAH), has sparked serious debates about the sustainability of ongoing HIV/AIDS control programmes, particularly in Africa. In this study, we examined HIV/AIDS-specific DAH allocation to Africa from 1990 to 2022, and the potential effects of funding cutbacks on disease outcomes. Methods: We nested 54 countries within five sub-regions of Africa and applied linear mixed-effects models to estimate the effects of DAH on HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality rates, accounting for clustering by sub-region and potential variability due to baseline incidence and mortality and other sources of heterogeneity. Results: Total DAH allocated to Africa increased from US$534,343 in 1990 to US$5,273,264 in 2022. The United States (U.S.) public sector contributed nearly two-thirds (US$58,399,088; 63.01%) of the total funding. Most of these funds were disbursed to Southern and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly countries with the highest HIV/AIDS burdens, including South Africa and Kenya. The fixed effects results and predicted margins indicate that, in addition to having a direct effect, U.S. public sector-specific DAH moderates the effectiveness of other international donor funding and domestic general government health spending (GHES) on HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality. Conclusions: Based on the historical trends and funding interactions, the cutback in U.S. DAH could be associated with weakening of the overall effectiveness of other donor funding and GHES. However, any future effects are contingent on African countries’ resilience to evolving challenges and resource allocation.