Social and Spatial Inequalities Under Pressure

This research examines the medium- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health in Italy, with a focus on its temporal evolution and the differential impact across various social groups, defined by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and occupation. We utilized longitudinal data from three waves (2019, 2020, and 2023) of the ITA.LI – Italian Lives survey. The data were collected through a mixed-mode approach (CAPI, CATI, and CAWI). We modeled mental health trajectories using multilevel (growth curve) analysis. ITA.LI is a nationally representative longitudinal survey of Italy, enriched with spatially-based administrative data from various institutions. By integrating individual survey responses with time-varying information at the geographical level (e.g., multidimensional deprivation index, infection rates, death rates, population density, age distribution, hospital capacity), the paper assesses whether COVID-19 exacerbated pre-existing inequalities in Italy or created new ones. Additionally, the study estimates whether the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 persist over time and whether these effects are moderated by individual, family, and contextual factors. Preliminary findings reveal heterogeneous impacts, with young people, women, individuals of lower socioeconomic status, and those living in deprived areas experiencing the most severe negative outcomes. The study highlights the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the long-term mental health consequences, particularly for the most vulnerable groups.