Stratospheric Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensification

In this study, we examine the role of high-level warm cores (HWCs) in the intensification and dissipation processes of tropical cyclones (TCs). Previous works explained in detail how these structures form as a consequence of stratospheric air intrusion, but while these studies have highlighted how HWCs contribute to increased TC intensity through lowering the hydrostatic Sea Level Pressure (SLP), their potential to stabilize the atmospheric column and, thus, inhibit convection hasn't been explored yet.\\ To investigate this dual effect, we analyzed outputs from two different simulations: an idealized setup using SAM model, and a global high-resolution simulation following the DYAMOND protocol with the NICAM model. Our results confirm the hypothesis of the stratospheric origin behind the formation of HWCs and their initial role in enhancing TC intensity by lowering hydrostatic SLP. However, as the HWC intensifies and extends downward, it increases stability in the air column, suppressing convection and, ultimately, leading to cyclone dissipation. These findings suggest that HWCs play a dual role in TC lifecycle, providing a stabilizing mechanism that can limit storm longevity. We remark the need for future work to focus on refining TC intensity forecasts by understanding under which environmental conditions HWCs may develop.