Simulating the development and progression of Chronic Kidney Disease and osteoporosis in people living with HIV

The “chronicization” of HIV infection brings about a growing necessity to attentively evaluate current and potential complications when prescribing the individual therapeutic regimen. Starting from this need, we developed two HIV-comorbidity simulators that, basing on the evidence available in medical literature and starting from the current clinical and demographic features of the individual patient, project and compare the risks of developing and worsening of nephropathy and osteopathy associated with possible ARV regimens. These simulators are embedded in a desktop, user-friendly software thought to be used by the treating physician during prescription discussion with his/her patients, in order to highlight expected clinical outcomes and healthcare resource consumption that may differ according to the therapeutic strategy selected. In this article we present the sources and methods used in developing the mathematical models, alongside a set of examples and the results of cohort-level validation runs.