Rainfall still represents the most important triggering factor for landsliding. Both shallow and deep-seated landslides can be triggered and reactivated as a consequence of precipitations. This contribution presents a series of approaches that incorporate rainfall for the assessment of landslide hazard, modes of reactivation and expected displacements for both shallow and deep-seated landslides. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds are presented for shallow landslides starting from results of a physically-based model and taking into account for the uncertainty of model parameters. It is shown how failure probabilities associated to combinations of rainfall intensity and duration, and extent of potentially unstable area can be determined. For deep-seated landslides a pseudo-dynamic visco-plastic approach is presented to show possibilities in forecasting landslide displacements as triggered by rainfall and piezo-metric oscillations. For more complex rockslides, an empirical approach is presented based on the analysis long-term in situ and remote monitoring. This analysis allows for the interpretation of rockslide behavior and for the analysis of complex response to rainfall
Crosta, G., Frattini, P., Di Prisco, C. (2012). Approaches to rainfall-induced landslides forecasting. In Landslides and Engineered Slopes: Protecting Society through Improved Understanding - Proceedings of the 11th International and 2nd North American Symposium on Landslides and Engineered Slopes, 2012 (pp.15-22). CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group.
Approaches to rainfall-induced landslides forecasting
CROSTA, GIOVANNI;FRATTINI, PAOLO;
2012
Abstract
Rainfall still represents the most important triggering factor for landsliding. Both shallow and deep-seated landslides can be triggered and reactivated as a consequence of precipitations. This contribution presents a series of approaches that incorporate rainfall for the assessment of landslide hazard, modes of reactivation and expected displacements for both shallow and deep-seated landslides. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds are presented for shallow landslides starting from results of a physically-based model and taking into account for the uncertainty of model parameters. It is shown how failure probabilities associated to combinations of rainfall intensity and duration, and extent of potentially unstable area can be determined. For deep-seated landslides a pseudo-dynamic visco-plastic approach is presented to show possibilities in forecasting landslide displacements as triggered by rainfall and piezo-metric oscillations. For more complex rockslides, an empirical approach is presented based on the analysis long-term in situ and remote monitoring. This analysis allows for the interpretation of rockslide behavior and for the analysis of complex response to rainfall
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
