Is Ambrosia trifida L. Preparing for a Wider Invasion? Changes in the Plant Morpho-Functional Traits over a Decade

Plastic traits are argued to favor the establishment of invasive alien plants and to evolve during the invasion process, so that invasions may be favored by both plasticity and evolutionary changes in plasticity. Despite this aspect being pivotal to understanding invasion processes, no information is available about the effect of residence time on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity of aliens to produce locally adapted phenotypes. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate changes in the morpho-functional traits of the invasive alien Ambrosia trifida L. over time. Specifically, we grew A. trifida plants under laboratory (at different temperatures: 10 degrees C, 20 degrees C and 25 degrees C) and field conditions by using seeds collected from 2011 to 2020 from an Eastern European population. Data about seedling emergence, vegetative (laboratory and field) and reproductive (field) traits were collected, e.g., maximum plant height (cm), total dry biomass (g), number of flowers (n) and number of new seeds (n). Analysis of variance (ANOVA), linear regressions and a plasticity index were applied to assess differences in plant performances when grown from seeds of different ages. An auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict future trends of some key plant traits (maximum height, total dry biomass and number of new seeds). Overall, the time of seedling emergence was not statistically different among seeds of different age, and regression analyses exhibited a positive relationship between residence time (seed age) and vegetative and reproductive parameters of A. trifida. Only male flower production exhibited a negative trend over time. At all temperatures (especially at 25 degrees C), the vegetative parameters increased with the decrease in residence time. The plasticity index of the measured traits tended to decrease over time for most traits both in the field and in the laboratory trials. The ARIMA model predicted that plant traits will continue to increase in size over time by 2030, suggesting further plastic adaptation of A. trifida. The results highlighted that residence time influences the evolution of phenotypic plasticity of A. trifida, which has strengthened its adaptability to the new conditions over a decade, also demonstrating a great adaptive and invasion potential for the future.