Overeducation of migrants in Lombardy: A trend analysis 2008–2021

This study examines the determinants of the overeducation phenomenon among migrants in Lombardy, Italy, and how it has evolved over the last 14 years. The target population consists of legal and undocumented individuals with original citizenship from countries defined as 'high migratory pressure countries', who declared themselves as 'employed'. Italy has one of the highest rates of overeducation among non-EU citizens in the European Union, and there is also a significant gap between the overeducation rates of Italian nationals and non-EU citizens in the country. The study explores various factors contributing to overeducation and how the individual and migratory characteristics affecting it evolved. The chosen period encompasses years affected by the consequences of the economic crisis and the pandemic emergency. A significant time effect, different according to gender, is detected: more specifically, a decrease in the probability of being overeducated in the post-crisis years in comparison with the preceding ones for men. More years since migration and having attended primary or secondary education in Italy appear to significantly lessen the likelihood of overeducation. Predicted probabilities demonstrate that being a woman and originating from certain countries, such as some eastern European non-EU countries (Ukraine and Moldova) and the Philippines, disadvantage foreign workers in terms of overeducation.