It is generally agreed that the conviction of an innocent person (type-I error) should be avoided even at the cost of allowing a certain number of acquittals of criminals (type-II error). The high standard of evidence that is usually required in criminal procedure reflects this principle. Conversely, the established model of optimal deterrence that follows the seminal work of Becker (1968) shows that the two types of error are equally detrimental in terms of deterrence and thus it prescribes the minimization of the sum of errors with no primacy given to type-I errors over type-II errors. This paper explains that when the costs of punishment are positive, and guilty individuals are, on average, more likely to be found guilty than innocent ones, wrongful convictions are more socially costly than wrongful acquittals. This justifies the bias against wrongful convictions without resorting to any ad hoc assumption about the relative weight of the two errors. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Rizzolli, M., Saraceno, M. (2013). Better that ten guilty persons escape: punishment costs explain the standard of evidence. PUBLIC CHOICE, 155(3-4), 395-411 [10.1007/s11127-011-9867-y].

Better that ten guilty persons escape: punishment costs explain the standard of evidence

RIZZOLLI, MATTEO;SARACENO, MARGHERITA
2013

Abstract

It is generally agreed that the conviction of an innocent person (type-I error) should be avoided even at the cost of allowing a certain number of acquittals of criminals (type-II error). The high standard of evidence that is usually required in criminal procedure reflects this principle. Conversely, the established model of optimal deterrence that follows the seminal work of Becker (1968) shows that the two types of error are equally detrimental in terms of deterrence and thus it prescribes the minimization of the sum of errors with no primacy given to type-I errors over type-II errors. This paper explains that when the costs of punishment are positive, and guilty individuals are, on average, more likely to be found guilty than innocent ones, wrongful convictions are more socially costly than wrongful acquittals. This justifies the bias against wrongful convictions without resorting to any ad hoc assumption about the relative weight of the two errors. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Judicial errors, Type-I errors, Type-II errors, Optimal standard of evidence, Punishment costs
English
2013
155
3-4
395
411
none
Rizzolli, M., Saraceno, M. (2013). Better that ten guilty persons escape: punishment costs explain the standard of evidence. PUBLIC CHOICE, 155(3-4), 395-411 [10.1007/s11127-011-9867-y].
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/49457
Citazioni
  • Scopus 29
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 30
Social impact