The paper addresses the problem of real-time detection of financial bubbles which, after the latest global crises, have become an issue of economic concern. It shows how some online procedures, called LORD, implemented using an appropriate p-value calibration, represent new potential tools for economists to monitor and respond to bubbles in real time. This has substantial implications for financial stability and crisis prevention. LORD algorithms are applied to some well recognized global stock indexes to test their reliability across a variety of financial scenarios. A comparison with standard offline approaches confirms their effectiveness.

Genoni, G., Quatto, P., Vacca, G. (2023). Dating financial bubbles via online multiple testing procedures. FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS, 58(Part A (December 2023)) [10.1016/j.frl.2023.104238].

Dating financial bubbles via online multiple testing procedures

Quatto, P;Vacca, G
2023

Abstract

The paper addresses the problem of real-time detection of financial bubbles which, after the latest global crises, have become an issue of economic concern. It shows how some online procedures, called LORD, implemented using an appropriate p-value calibration, represent new potential tools for economists to monitor and respond to bubbles in real time. This has substantial implications for financial stability and crisis prevention. LORD algorithms are applied to some well recognized global stock indexes to test their reliability across a variety of financial scenarios. A comparison with standard offline approaches confirms their effectiveness.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Bubble dating; Exceedance control of the false discovery proportion; False discovery proportion; Online multiple testing procedure;
English
1-ago-2023
2023
58
Part A (December 2023)
104238
none
Genoni, G., Quatto, P., Vacca, G. (2023). Dating financial bubbles via online multiple testing procedures. FINANCE RESEARCH LETTERS, 58(Part A (December 2023)) [10.1016/j.frl.2023.104238].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/472540
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