Occupational Choices and Insurgency in Afghanistan's Provinces

This chapter examines the link between occupational opportunities and antigovernment activity in Afghanistan. In particular, it explores empirically whether opium prices induce subsequent violence; whether a reverse mechanism coexists; and whether alternative measures of the relative income can help explain the spread of insecurity in Afghanistan. The chapter shows that while opium prices do not drive conflict, increased conflict leads to increased supply and lower opium prices.