We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts has a negative effect on the GDP level, it is very often insignificant. More importantly, however, both methods display a wide variety of individual effects, and in a large number of countries civil war has either no effect or a positive and significant impact on the prospect for economic growth.

Bove, V., Elia, L., Smith, R. (2017). On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war. OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS, 69(3), 550-568 [10.1093/oep/gpw050].

On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war

Elia, L;
2017

Abstract

We show how the occurrence of a civil war has heterogeneous effects on the level of GDP, using case-study, synthetic control and large-N panel-data approaches. We first discuss the relation between these methods and then provide lower and upper estimates of the economic effect of civil war. Although, on average, the incidence of internal conflicts has a negative effect on the GDP level, it is very often insignificant. More importantly, however, both methods display a wide variety of individual effects, and in a large number of countries civil war has either no effect or a positive and significant impact on the prospect for economic growth.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
civil war, economic growth, synthetic control, panel data
English
2017
69
3
550
568
reserved
Bove, V., Elia, L., Smith, R. (2017). On the heterogeneous consequences of civil war. OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS, 69(3), 550-568 [10.1093/oep/gpw050].
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
Bove-2017-Oxf Econ Papers-VoR.pdf

Solo gestori archivio

Tipologia di allegato: Publisher’s Version (Version of Record, VoR)
Licenza: Tutti i diritti riservati
Dimensione 229.7 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
229.7 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/458538
Citazioni
  • Scopus 35
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 35
Social impact