Pay attention: you can fall! The Mini-BESTest scale and the turning duration of the TUG test provide valid balance measures in neurological patients: a prospective study with falls as the balance criterion

Background: Balance, i.e., the ability not to fall, is often poor in neurological patients and this impairment increases their risk of falling. The Mini-Balance Evaluation System Test (Mini-BESTest), a rating scale, the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test, and gait measures are commonly used to quantify balance. This study assesses the criterion validity of these measures as balance measures. Methods: The probability of being a faller within nine months was used as the balance criterion. The Mini-BESTest, TUG (instrumented with inertial sensors), and walking test were administered before and after inpatient rehabilitation. Multiple and LASSO logistic regressions were used for the analysis. The diagnostic accuracy of the model was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Mobility measure validity was compared with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results: Two hundred and fourteen neurological patients (stroke, peripheral neuropathy, or parkinsonism) were recruited. In total, 82 patients fell at least once in the nine-month follow-up. The Mini-BESTest (AUC = 0.69; 95%CI: 0.62–0.76), the duration of the TUG turning phase (AUC = 0.69; 0.62–0.76), and other TUG measures were significant faller predictors in regression models. However, only the turning duration (AIC = 274.0) and Mini-BESTest (AIC = 276.1) substantially improved the prediction of a baseline model, which only included fall risk factors from the medical history (AIC = 281.7). The LASSO procedure selected gender, disease chronicity, urinary incontinence, the Mini-BESTest, and turning duration as optimal faller predictors. Conclusion: The TUG turning duration and the Mini-BESTest predict the chance of being a faller. Their criterion validity as balance measures in neurological patients is substantial.