Arrival Time Uncertainty Impact in Air Traffic Flow Management

The allocation of ground holding is a key problem in air traffic flow management. There is a considerable body of research in this area, which primarily considers the impact of weather-induced capacity uncertainties In this presentation, however, we focus on uncertainty that arises on the demand-side, that is, due to the unpredictable aircraft arrival times. We present procedures to determine optimal ground holding levels when such uncertainty is present, and evaluate its impact on overall flow management performance.