The 30-day metric in acute heart failure revisited: data from IN-HF Outcome, an Italian nationwide cardiology registry

Aims Unplanned readmissions early after a discharge from acute heart failure hospitalization are common and have become a reimbursement benchmark and marker of hospital quality. However, the competing risk of short-term post-discharge mortality is substantial. Methods and results Using data from the prospective, nationwide Registry IN-HF Outcome, we analysed the incidence and predictors of 30-day mortality or readmissions and associated days-alive-out-of-hospital (DAOH) in 1520 patients discharged alive after admission for acute heart failure. Within 30 days after discharge, 94 patients (6.2%) were readmitted (91% for cardiovascular causes; 60% recurrent heart failure) and 42 (2.8%) died, 10 of which occurred during readmission. Overall, 126 patients (8.3%) met the combined endpoint. By multivariable logistic regression, worsening chronic heart failure as clinical presentation [odds ratio (OR) 1.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-2.77, P = 0.005), inotropes during admission (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.40-3.43, P = 0.0006), length of stay (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04, P = 0.002) and renin-angiotensin system inhibitors at discharge (OR 0.52, 95%CI 0.35-0.77, P = 0.001) independently predicted 30-day all-cause mortality and/or readmission (c-statistic = 0.695). Per cent 30-day DAOH was lower in patients with in-hospital inotrope use, no renin-angiotensin system inhibitors prescription at discharge, New York Heart Association III-IV class at discharge, and correlated inversely with length of stay and age. Conclusion A clinical and biohumoral profile consistent with chronic advanced heart failure and end-organ damage identifies acute heart failure patients discharged home from cardiology units, who are at highest risk of early death and/or readmission. These findings have practical implications for tailoring specific follow-up.