In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1, 760,291 €/year, with a maximum of 13,814 €/year/cell. © 2011 Casa Editrice Università La Sapienza.

Lari, S., Crosta, G., Frattini, P., Horton, P., Jaboyedoff, M. (2011). Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley. In 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment (pp.933-940) [10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-101].

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

LARI, SERENA;CROSTA, GIOVANNI;FRATTINI, PAOLO;
2011

Abstract

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1, 760,291 €/year, with a maximum of 13,814 €/year/cell. © 2011 Casa Editrice Università La Sapienza.
No
paper
Scientifica
Alpine valleys; Communication lines; Data availability; Debris flows; Economic risks; Economic values; Expected annual loss; Market studies; Northern Italy; Public facilities; Recreational activities; Regional scale; Relative probability; Societal risks; Spatial resolution, Debris; Hazards; Rating; Risk perception, Risk assessment
English
5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment
9788895814469
http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84861608754&partnerID=40&md5=1a4bbc7455b60643cd0ab8985353894b
Lari, S., Crosta, G., Frattini, P., Horton, P., Jaboyedoff, M. (2011). Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley. In 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment (pp.933-940) [10.4408/IJEGE.2011-03.B-101].
Lari, S; Crosta, G; Frattini, P; Horton, P; Jaboyedoff, M
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/34880
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