This entry starts by defining probability, followed by a review of the historical context of probabilistic thinking. It continues with a brief commentary on experimental classical research on probabilistic thinking, heuristics, and biases research program. It then focuses on the main critical perspectives to this paradigm, the frequentist and the pragmatic approaches, which have reinterpreted the so-called cognitive illusions. These perspectives lead to a further exploration of the concept of probabilistic thinking, which opens the way toward a more genuinely psychological and comprehensive conception of “possible” and “uncertain.”
Macchi, L., Caravona, L., Aimo, N., Cucchiarini, V. (2022). Probabilistic Thinking. In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of the Possible. Springer Nature [10.1007/978-3-319-98390-5_208-1].
Probabilistic Thinking
Macchi L.
;Caravona L.;Cucchiarini V.
2022
Abstract
This entry starts by defining probability, followed by a review of the historical context of probabilistic thinking. It continues with a brief commentary on experimental classical research on probabilistic thinking, heuristics, and biases research program. It then focuses on the main critical perspectives to this paradigm, the frequentist and the pragmatic approaches, which have reinterpreted the so-called cognitive illusions. These perspectives lead to a further exploration of the concept of probabilistic thinking, which opens the way toward a more genuinely psychological and comprehensive conception of “possible” and “uncertain.”
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