We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model on each municipality. Municipalities with a higher initial number of cases feature a lower rate of diffusion, not attributable to herd immunity: there is a robust and strongly significant negative correlation between the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) and the initial outbreak size. This represents novel evidence of the prevalence-response elasticity in a cross-sectional setting, characterized by a same health system and homogeneous social distancing regulations. By ruling out alternative explanations, we conclude that a higher number of cases causes changes of behavior, such as a more strict adoption of social distancing measures among the population, that reduce the spread. This finding calls for the distribution of detailed epidemiological data to populations affected by COVID-19 outbreaks.

Battiston, P., Gamba, S. (2021). COVID-19: R0 is lower where outbreak is larger. HEALTH POLICY, 125(2 (February 2021)), 141-147 [10.1016/j.healthpol.2020.10.017].

COVID-19: R0 is lower where outbreak is larger

Battiston P.
;
2021

Abstract

We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model on each municipality. Municipalities with a higher initial number of cases feature a lower rate of diffusion, not attributable to herd immunity: there is a robust and strongly significant negative correlation between the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) and the initial outbreak size. This represents novel evidence of the prevalence-response elasticity in a cross-sectional setting, characterized by a same health system and homogeneous social distancing regulations. By ruling out alternative explanations, we conclude that a higher number of cases causes changes of behavior, such as a more strict adoption of social distancing measures among the population, that reduce the spread. This finding calls for the distribution of detailed epidemiological data to populations affected by COVID-19 outbreaks.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Basic reproduction number; Containment; COVID-19; Prevalence-response elasticity; Social distancing;
English
8-nov-2020
2021
125
2 (February 2021)
141
147
none
Battiston, P., Gamba, S. (2021). COVID-19: R0 is lower where outbreak is larger. HEALTH POLICY, 125(2 (February 2021)), 141-147 [10.1016/j.healthpol.2020.10.017].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/302935
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