The gravitational wave background from massive black hole binaries in Illustris: Spectral features and time to detection with pulsar timing arrays

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) around the world are using the incredible consistency of millisecond pulsars to measure low-frequency gravitational waves from (super)massive black hole (MBH) binaries. We use comprehensive MBH merger models based on cosmological hydrodynamic simulations to predict the spectrum of the stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB). We use real time-of-arrival specifications from the European, NANOGrav, Parkes, and International PTA (IPTA) to calculate realistic times to detection of the GWB across a wide range of model parameters. In addition to exploring the parameter space of environmental hardening processes (in particular: stellar scattering efficiencies), we have expanded our models to include eccentric binary evolution which can have a strong effect on the GWB spectrum. Our models show that strong stellar scattering and high characteristic eccentricities enhance the GWB strain amplitude near the PTA-sensitive 'sweet-spot' (near the frequency f = 1 yr-1), slightly improving detection prospects in these cases. While the GWB amplitude is degenerate between cosmological and environmental parameters, the location of a spectral turnover at low frequencies (f ≲ 0.1 yr-1) is strongly indicative of environmental coupling. At high frequencies (f ≳ 1 yr-1), the GWB spectral index can be used to infer the number density of sources and possibly their eccentricity distribution. Even with merger models that use pessimistic environmental and eccentricity parameters, if the current rate of PTA expansion continues, we find that the IPTA is highly likely to make a detection within about 10 yr.