A prognostic model predicting recovery of walking independence of elderly patients after hip-fracture surgery. An experiment in a rehabilitation unit in Northern Italy

A score for identifying post-hip-fracture surgery patients at various levels (high, medium, and low) of risk for unsuccessful recovery of pre-fracture walking ability was developed. Three hundred ninety-eight HF patients were enrolled in the study. The score significantly and independently predicted failure to walk independently at discharge, failure to walk independently after 12 months, and death after 12 months. The score may be useful for clinicians and healthcare administrators to target populations for rehabilitative programs. INTRODUCTION: To develop a model predicting at the time that elderly hip-fracture (HF) patients undergo rehabilitation if they will have recovered walking independence at discharge. METHODS: Data from all patients admitted to a Department of Rehabilitation in Italy between January 2001 and June 2008 after HF surgery were used. Variables concerning cognitive, clinical, functional, and social parameters were evaluated. Predominant measures were identified through correspondence analysis, and a variable score was defined. Three risk classes (minimum, moderate, and high) were identified and univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to assess the model's predictivity and risk classes for the various outcomes. RESULTS: Three hundred ninety-eight HF patients were enrolled. The variables selected to construct the score were age, gender, body mass index, number of drugs being taken, the Mini Mental State Examination, the Instrumental Activity of Daily Living, and the pre-fracture Barthel index. According to univariate analysis, the score was not better than the pre-fracture Barthel's index, but, according to multivariate analysis, it was an independent predictor for all the outcomes, while the pre-fracture Barthel index predicted only outcomes at discharge. In particular, the score significantly predicted failure to walk independently at discharge, failure to walk independently after 12 months, and death after 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: A method of identifying post-HF surgery patients at various levels (high-, medium-, and low-) of risk for unsuccessful recovery of pre-fracture walking ability has been designed. The method may be useful for clinicians and healthcare administrators to target populations for rehabilitative programs.