We consider a Minskyan type model of a closed economy with autonomous public expenditure formulated in a discrete time framework, where an endogenous debt adjustment process is considered and where income variations account for real world physical and social constraints. The model is characterized by a unique nontrivial fixed point matching the economic equilibrium. We study its stability properties in terms of the constant factor that fixes the firms' desired debt level at a certain proportion of the current income. The stability loss of the fixed point is associated with either a subcritical flip or a supercritical Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. The latter implies occurrence of self-sustained oscillations interpreted as business cycles. We present three possible dynamic scenarios right after the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation: in a generic case and in two resonant cases. We also describe modifications of the attractor when propensity of firms to get into debt grows. In addition, we highlight that the increase of instabilities and complexities of dynamic outcomes is paired with the rise of the so called financial fragility indicator, which is a measure of fragility of the financial structure of the economy.

Cerboni Baiardi, L., Naimzada, A., Panchuk, A. (2020). Endogenous desired debt in a Minskyan business model. CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS, 131 [10.1016/j.chaos.2019.109470].

Endogenous desired debt in a Minskyan business model

Cerboni Baiardi, L
;
Naimzada, A;
2020

Abstract

We consider a Minskyan type model of a closed economy with autonomous public expenditure formulated in a discrete time framework, where an endogenous debt adjustment process is considered and where income variations account for real world physical and social constraints. The model is characterized by a unique nontrivial fixed point matching the economic equilibrium. We study its stability properties in terms of the constant factor that fixes the firms' desired debt level at a certain proportion of the current income. The stability loss of the fixed point is associated with either a subcritical flip or a supercritical Neimark-Sacker bifurcation. The latter implies occurrence of self-sustained oscillations interpreted as business cycles. We present three possible dynamic scenarios right after the Neimark-Sacker bifurcation: in a generic case and in two resonant cases. We also describe modifications of the attractor when propensity of firms to get into debt grows. In addition, we highlight that the increase of instabilities and complexities of dynamic outcomes is paired with the rise of the so called financial fragility indicator, which is a measure of fragility of the financial structure of the economy.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Minsky hypothesis; Financial fragility; Business cycle; Neimark-Sacker bifurcation; Critical lines
English
2020
131
109470
none
Cerboni Baiardi, L., Naimzada, A., Panchuk, A. (2020). Endogenous desired debt in a Minskyan business model. CHAOS, SOLITONS AND FRACTALS, 131 [10.1016/j.chaos.2019.109470].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/265498
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