Stated Preferences are, together with Bass diffusion and, to a lesser extent, Total Cost of Ownership, the most popular methods to forecast the future diffusion of electric and alternative fuel vehicles. In this contribution, we compare the merits and limitations of SP relative to other methods. We also review the empirical results provided by SP surveys and assess their validity for modeling market diffusion. We also propose a meta-analysis-based Synthetic Utility Function that consolidates results across various studies and can be used, for simulation purpose, in a Discrete Choice Model context. Such an approach makes the simulation results less dependent of single surveys’ idiosyncrasies, and hence is helpful for the formulation of robust policy recommendations
Massiani, D. (2012). Using Stated Preferences to forecast alternative fuel vehicles market diffusion. SR SCIENZE REGIONALI, 11(3), 93-122 [10.3280/SCRE2012-003006].
Using Stated Preferences to forecast alternative fuel vehicles market diffusion
Massiani, D
2012
Abstract
Stated Preferences are, together with Bass diffusion and, to a lesser extent, Total Cost of Ownership, the most popular methods to forecast the future diffusion of electric and alternative fuel vehicles. In this contribution, we compare the merits and limitations of SP relative to other methods. We also review the empirical results provided by SP surveys and assess their validity for modeling market diffusion. We also propose a meta-analysis-based Synthetic Utility Function that consolidates results across various studies and can be used, for simulation purpose, in a Discrete Choice Model context. Such an approach makes the simulation results less dependent of single surveys’ idiosyncrasies, and hence is helpful for the formulation of robust policy recommendationsFile | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Massiani (2012) use of SP surveys for EVs.pdf
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