Determinants of international tourist choices in Italian provinces: A joint demand–supply approach with spatial effects

Only recently is research merging demand and supply approaches in explaining tourist market equilibria. This paper innovates in three ways. One: we jointly consider demand and supply explanatory variables and spillover effects originating from contiguous areas by designing a unilateral gravity model augmented with spatial effects (spatial Durbin model). Two: we raise the economic profile by prioritizing an expenditure variable over flow variables (arrivals, overnight stays, length of stay) and taking into account travel costs (via the origin–destination distance). Three: we differentiate spatial contexts by focusing on international tourist origins and on local (NUTS3) destinations. Results confirm previous literature only in part.