We propose a multivariate Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to analyse longitudinal survey data able to ac- count for repeated responses over time along with longitudinal survey weights and missing responses. Since trust may be conceived as a psychological unobservable process of each person that fluctuates over time we consider observed time-varying and time-fixed individual covariates influencing the initial and transition prob- abilities. We employ the joint estimated posterior probabilities to make predictions on the latent trajectories of the course of public trust of the Polish society.
Pennoni, F., Genge, E. (2019). A multivariate hidden Markov model: prospects for the course of public trust in Poland. Intervento presentato a: International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (IWSM), University of Minho, Portugal.
A multivariate hidden Markov model: prospects for the course of public trust in Poland
Pennoni, F;
2019
Abstract
We propose a multivariate Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to analyse longitudinal survey data able to ac- count for repeated responses over time along with longitudinal survey weights and missing responses. Since trust may be conceived as a psychological unobservable process of each person that fluctuates over time we consider observed time-varying and time-fixed individual covariates influencing the initial and transition prob- abilities. We employ the joint estimated posterior probabilities to make predictions on the latent trajectories of the course of public trust of the Polish society.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Pennoni_Genge_Poster_IWSM.pdf
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Descrizione: Poster presented at the 34th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling (IWSM), University of Minho, Portugal, 7-12 July 2019
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