Migrating with Special Needs? Projections of Flows of Migrant Women with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting Toward Europe 2016–2030

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a rising issue in western societies as a consequence of international migration. Our paper presents demography-driven projections of female flows with FGM/C from each practicing country to each EU28 member state for the 3 sub-periods 2016–2020, 2021–2025, and 2026–2030, with the aim of supporting resource planning and policy making. According to our projections, the EU28 countries will receive a flow of around 400,000 female migrants between 2016 and 2020, and around 1.3 million female migrants between 2016 and 2030 from FGM/C practicing countries. About one-third of them, corresponding to an estimated 127,000 between 2016 and 2020, and more than 400,000 between 2016 and 2030 will have undergone FGM/C before migration. Among these female flows, slightly more than 20% is expected to be made up of girls aged 0–14. According to the expected age at arrival, 20% of these girls are expected to have already undergone FGM/C, while slightly less than 10% are to be considered potentially at risk of undergoing FGM/C after migration. As the number of women with FGM/C in Europe is expected to rise at quite a fast rate, it is important to act timely by designing targeted interventions and policies at the national and at the European level to assist cut women and protect children. Such measures are particularly compelling in France, Italy, Spain, UK, and Sweden that are expected to be the most affected countries by migration from FGM/C practicing countries.