A landslide-hazard map is intended to show the location of future slope instability. Most spatial models of the hazard lack reliability tests of the procedures and predictions for estimating the probabilities of future landslides, thus precluding use of the maps for probabilistic risk analysis. To correct this deficiency we propose a systematic procedure comprising two analytical steps: "relative-hazard mapping" and "empirical probability estimation". A mathematical model first generates a prediction map by dividing an area into "prediction" classes according to the relative likelihood of occurrence of future landslides, conditional by local geomorphic and topographic characteristics. The second stage estimates empirically the probability of landslide occurrence in each prediction class, by applying a cross-validation technique. Cross-validation, a "blind test" here using non-overlapping spatial or temporal subsets of mapped landslides, evaluates accuracy of the prediction and from the resulting statistics estimates occurrence probabilities of future landslides. This quantitative approach, exemplified by several experiments in an area near Lisbon, Portugal, can accommodate any subsequent analysis of landslide risk. © 2007.

Chung, C., Fabbri, A. (2008). Predicting landslides for risk analysis — Spatial models tested by a cross-validation technique. GEOMORPHOLOGY, 94, 438-452 [10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.12.036].

Predicting landslides for risk analysis — Spatial models tested by a cross-validation technique

FABBRI, ANDREA
2008

Abstract

A landslide-hazard map is intended to show the location of future slope instability. Most spatial models of the hazard lack reliability tests of the procedures and predictions for estimating the probabilities of future landslides, thus precluding use of the maps for probabilistic risk analysis. To correct this deficiency we propose a systematic procedure comprising two analytical steps: "relative-hazard mapping" and "empirical probability estimation". A mathematical model first generates a prediction map by dividing an area into "prediction" classes according to the relative likelihood of occurrence of future landslides, conditional by local geomorphic and topographic characteristics. The second stage estimates empirically the probability of landslide occurrence in each prediction class, by applying a cross-validation technique. Cross-validation, a "blind test" here using non-overlapping spatial or temporal subsets of mapped landslides, evaluates accuracy of the prediction and from the resulting statistics estimates occurrence probabilities of future landslides. This quantitative approach, exemplified by several experiments in an area near Lisbon, Portugal, can accommodate any subsequent analysis of landslide risk. © 2007.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
landslide, risk
English
2008
94
438
452
none
Chung, C., Fabbri, A. (2008). Predicting landslides for risk analysis — Spatial models tested by a cross-validation technique. GEOMORPHOLOGY, 94, 438-452 [10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.12.036].
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/16610
Citazioni
  • Scopus 116
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 102
Social impact