Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.

Mei, W., Xie, S., Primeau, F., Mcwilliams, J., Pasquero, C. (2015). Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures. SCIENCE ADVANCES, 1(4) [10.1126/sciadv.1500014].

Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures

PASQUERO, CLAUDIA
Ultimo
2015

Abstract

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100.
Articolo in rivista - Articolo scientifico
Climate Variability and Change; air-sea interaction; hurricanes; intensification duration; intensification rate; sea surface temperature; tropical cyclones; typhoon intensification; upper-ocean warming
English
2015
1
4
e1500014
partially_open
Mei, W., Xie, S., Primeau, F., Mcwilliams, J., Pasquero, C. (2015). Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures. SCIENCE ADVANCES, 1(4) [10.1126/sciadv.1500014].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/102340
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