Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out- comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that di erent factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We nd strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over- come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.

Fumagalli, L., Sala, E. (2011). The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: The case of the 2006 Italian general elections [Working paper].

The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: The case of the 2006 Italian general elections

SALA, EMANUELA MARIA
2011

Abstract

Pre-election polls sometimes fail to reach the purpose for which they are carried out: to provide accurate predictions of electoral out- comes. By looking at the 2006 Italian General Elections, this paper aims to assess the role that di erent factors play in determining the accuracy of the pre-election polls. We nd strong evidence that the quality of the sampling frame and non-respondents may contribute to biasing the polls results. This paper also aims to show how to over- come some of the limitations of the survey data by using statistical matching techniques and weighing procedures.
Working paper
Total survey error, coverage error, statistical matching, weighting, pre electoral pollss
English
2011
http://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/publications/working-papers/iser/2011-29.pdf
Fumagalli, L., Sala, E. (2011). The total survey error paradigm and pre-election polls: The case of the 2006 Italian general elections [Working paper].
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10281/25807
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