Causes of Daphnia midsummer decline in two deep meromictic subalpine lakes

Daphnia are key organisms in pelagic food webs, acting as a food resource for fish and predatory zooplankton and regulating phytoplankton through grazing. Its population dynamic follows regular seasonal patterns, with spring peaks followed by summer population declines (midsummer declines, MSDs). Midsummer declines show high inter-annual variation, which has been attributed to different causes. However, the mechanisms controlling the MSD remain poorly understood, especially in deep stratified lakes. We tried to disentangle the factors causing Daphnia MSDs in Lake Lugano and Lake Iseo (in Switzerland and Italy), two deep peri-alpine lakes with similar trophic status and vertical mixing dynamics, characterised by phosphorus accumulation in the hypolimnion and variable mixing during late-winter turnovers. Specifically, we assessed the effects of three different hypothetical pathways according to which: (1) winter air temperature controls MSDs by influencing mixing depth during turnovers and epilimnetic phosphorus replenishment; (2) vernal air temperature influences MSD by accelerating the timing of spring population peak; and (3) summer temperature influences MSDs by increasing fish predation. We assessed the relative strength of these pathways using structural equation modelling on long-term datasets for the two lakes (29 years for Lake Lugano and 19 years for Lake Iseo). Between the hypothesised pathways, the one driven by winter air temperature (through P replenishment) influenced Daphnia abundance in spring in both lakes, but the effects propagated to summer Daphnia abundance only in Lake Lugano. Additionally, summer Daphnia abundance was influenced by the summer air temperature through a positive (although weak) effect. By comparison, vernal air temperature had no detectable effects on summer Daphnia abundance. The results revealed marked differences between the meromictic study lakes and the shallow hypertrophic water bodies that were the focus of previous research on Daphnia MSD, and also between the two study lakes. The influence of epilimnetic P replenishment on the summer Daphnia abundance in Lake Lugano, which was recovering from past eutrophication, may have reflected the greater susceptibility of deep, stratified lakes to P depletion after spring compared to shallow hypertrophic lakes or reservoirs. This effect might not have been detected in Lake Iseo because P was more consistently depleted during the study period (i.e. variance in the predictor was too low to detect an effect). This study highlighted the complexity of the effects of climate variability on Daphnia MSD in deep lakes, showing that the responses can differ even between two neighbouring lakes with similar vertical mixing dynamics and trophic status. At the same time, the results suggest that future increases in winter air temperature, caused by global warming, may cause critically low densities of Daphnia during spring and summer and compromise the ability of zooplankton to control phytoplankton biomass