Russian tourism in Italy: Trends, seasonality, and outliers

In economic terms and otherwise, Russian tourism in Italy is becoming increasingly important; despite various historically contingent and adverse events, it will tend to consolidate and develop further in the future. However, despite the importance of this tourism segment, systematic studies that analyse, with appropriate statistical models, its short- and long-term temporal components are missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by developing a trend and seasonality analysis of Russian overnight stays in Italy from January 2001 to December 2012. Two different approaches will be followed: the first will use a decomposition method based on appropriate moving averages, while the second will be based on dynamic multiple regression models without and with outlier detection. This approach will enable to examine the phenomenon from different perspectives and then to proceed to a systematic comparison of the results obtained. These approaches will be applied not only to the total number of Russian tourists coming to Italy but also to its appropriate subsets, distinguished by hospitality sector (hotels and other tourist accommodations) and time interval (2001-2006 and 2007-2012). In this way, through appropriate intersectoral and intertemporal comparisons, the characteristics of Russian tourist flows to Italy can be better highlighted. These characteristics will be further analysed, comparing them with the overnight stays of two important tourist nationalities (German and Italian) as well as of all foreigners.